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    Trump Wins – What’s Next for the Market? From the 11/13/2016 Client Letter

    Wow. What an interesting week for the markets.

    A quick recap, and then a brief summary of how I see events impacting markets over the next quarters:

    Early Wednesday morning, market futures began selling off as a Trump victory began to look possible. As those odds increased, the futures markets began to sell off in earnest. At one point Dow futures were down more than 800 points. Other exchanges such as the NASDAQ saw circuit breakers triggered to slow the downward cascade. Overseas markets, which had gone negative as the electoral votes piled up in Trump’s column, also sold off more deeply.

    For those that don’t know, when this happens the market usually opens where the after-hours trade left off. So it was looking like the markets were going to experience a very bad day.

    Then something changed. Futures began to make up lost ground, overseas markets began to rise. Often, following a large directional move, the markets will retrace part of that move prior to reversing again to continue in the same direction as before. In this case, down.

    But that’s not what happened Wednesday morning.

    Markets opened slightly down from Tuesday’s regular session and then proceeded to rally the rest of the day. The Dow’s move from down over 800 points after hours to rally nearly 6% from the futures low and reach an all-time high the day after the election results may be as unprecedented as Trump’s come from behind victory in election.

    Many of Trump’s campaign promises were slim on details and big on promise, as is often the case with politicians seeking election. But Trump had more unknowns than most and the markets dislike uncertainty.

    This uncertainty helped drive the futures selloff. But what changed in the early hours of Wednesday morning?

    Markets globally began to rally when it became clear that in addition to the Presidency, Republicans would also take the House and the Senate. Instead of a gridlocked DC with Democrats holding the Senate or Congress, real change suddenly became possible.

    It didn’t mean that everything would change, but that some items of Trump’s agenda were suddenly probable, and without a term long fight with the opposition.

    As a family member of mine expressed it, the Republican sweep is perceived as The Free Market Revived.

    What exactly does this mean, and how might it impact markets in the near term?

    First off, lower taxes. America has one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world. Lowering corporate taxes makes America more competitive as a home market for both our corporations and multi-nationals located in higher tax rate jurisdictions. Think of the tax inversions we’ve seen in the last couple years, when large US companies make an acquisition to get their corporate taxation domiciled in Ireland or elsewhere. It’s reasonable to expect multi-nationals elsewhere to start attempting American tax inversion if Trump gets his 15% corporate tax rate. More jobs.

    Lowering the corporate tax rate also leaves more $ in private sector hands, which is traditionally much more efficient with capital than government. This could translate to more jobs, bigger dividends, continued stock buybacks, and accelerated M & A activity driven by tax savings.

    He also aims to simplify individual taxes and lower rates across the board. In the near term, tax cuts are more effective than stimulus spending. Tax cuts hit the economy quickly.

    He’s proposed a tax holiday for US corporations. Depending on what study you read, there are between $1.2 trillion and $2.8 trillion dollars being held by US companies overseas. At a 20% tax holiday or less, most if not all of those dollars will come home. Trump is proposing 10%. That is a potential steroid for US corporations.

    Regulations will be rolled back. Many have been overly burdensome for several industries. This removes a major obstacle US companies of all sizes have been forced to deal with over the last decade. They can now look forward to an easing of regulations rather than more unknown regulations coming down the pipe. This allows management teams to become more effective in strategic planning and capital expenditures. These are probable positives for jobs and earnings.

    Banking in particular will almost certainly see wide spread reduction in regulations. Dodd-Frank will be heavily streamlined if not gutted entirely. These are positives for bank earnings.

    If Trump’s promises are to be believed, he will try to break up the big banks. I see this as an additional significant positive if it happens. It could pave the way for increased earnings sector wide while reducing systemic risk.

    Interest rates are likely to rise. Also good for banks.

    The energy industry is facing renewal, with administrative policies that favor American producers over global producers. This will begin to impact energy sector earnings within a few quarters, subject to what kind of protections actually come through and whether OPEC can get agreement at cutting production.

    The Affordable Care Act will also be streamlined or perhaps completely restructured. Given the precipitous rise in cost to patients, providers, insurers, and tax payers that has occurred as a result of the program, it’s hard to think whatever changes come will not be financial positives in some significant way. This will take longer than the other initiatives, but reforming the ACA is on the agenda.

    These are factors the market began to price in when it became clear Republicans were going to sweep the election.

    It’s interesting to note these are the sort of structural fiscal reforms the US Central Bank has been calling on elected officials to implement for years in order to reduce the economy’s dependence on monetary policies (which are increasingly ineffective.)

    Despite the sweep, many if not most of Trump’s ideas will be obstructed by opponents on both sides of aisle – he is an outsider and will likely remain so. But it’s clear the market is cheering lower taxes, lower regulation, and the probability of a renewed American energy sector.

    How long will the honeymoon last? That’s impossible to say definitively, but the above gives the market something to think about, particularly if earnings continue to strengthen. There are no guarantees, but lower taxes + lower regulation + rising earnings + no recession should translate into positives for equity market prices in the near term.

    There are downsides to many Trump proposals, including deficits risks and trade wars, and bonds seem likely to suffer, but for now the markets like what they think they see. Barring a change in recession status or a major disruptive event here or abroad, markets seem primed to hold their ground and perhaps even advance moving into year end and the first half of next year.

    As always, reach out with your questions. Please share this information with one friend that can benefit from it. Share buttons below.

    To smarter investing,

    Dak Hartsock
    Market Strategist
    ACI Wealth Advisors, LLC.
    Process Portfolios, LLC.

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    Dak Hartsock

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    Market Income

    This portfolio invests in a basket of highly liquid Index or Sector securities and sells off atypical returns in exchange for a premium on a rolling basis. That’s a fancy way of saying we take the bird in hand and let someone else have the two in the bush.  We buy sectors that are undervalued relative to the rest of the market or vs. their historical value ranges which reduces downside risk vs. the broad market.  Typically out-performs in bear markets, neutral markets and mild bull markets.   while under-performs strong bull markets.

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    Core Equity

    Invests in diversified components of the financial markets and broad economy by targeting sectors which demonstrate the greatest potential for a consistent range of multi-year returns, while offering a risk adjusted investment profile equal to or lower than the broad markets.  Our research tells us which sectors demonstrate the greatest potential for consistent multi-year returns while offering greater risk efficiency than the broad markets.  We invest on an “Outcome Oriented” basis – meaning we have a good idea what the returns over time will be at a given purchase price.

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    Durable Opportunities

    This portfolio invests in companies possessing a Durable Competitive Advantage.  Such companies are likely to be around for decades, easing the concern of principal return.  DCA companies often suffer less in bear markets and usually lead recoveries.  These companies allow ACI to build portfolios with minimum expected returns that can be in the mid-single digit range over any 3-5 year period which can provide long term stability partnered with long term growth in equity.

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    Full Cycle

    This portfolio is derived from the ground breaking work in ‘risk parity’ by Ray Dalio, arguably one of the top 10 money managers in history and founder of Bridgewater Associates.  The Full Cycle portfolio is built on the allocation models Ray designed to provide the highest potential risk adjusted returns possible through all phases of the economic cycle.  Bridgewater’s “All Weather” fund was designed for pension funds and other large institutional investors that needed to earn stable returns with stable risk, and has been closed to new investors for years.  At the time the fund closed, the All Weather Portfolio had a minimum required investment of $100 million.

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    Equity Builder

    This is a risk management overlay which helps build and protect accounts by collecting small premiums against held positions on an opportunistic basis during correcting markets.  EQB seeks to collect an extra 2% – 5% per year against the cost of underlying investments.  While primarily targeted at increasing account equity, EQB gives an extra layer of protection to capital during periods of higher volatility.

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    Diversified, broad exposure to fixed income ETFs and best of breed no load funds including core fixed income components such as Government, Corporate or MBS, municipals, and unconstrained “Go Anywhere” funds.

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    Dak Hartsock; Investment manager with over 15 years of experience with securities & securities options. Dak has worked full time in the financial markets since 2007. He has more than a decade of operating experience as a business owner & developer, with substantially all personal net worth invested in ACI. He is a graduate of the University of Virginia.

    Robert Hartsock; MBA. Bob has over 30 years of senior management experience in diverse markets, products and businesses. He brings an exceptional record that includes management roles in two Fortune 500 companies and leadership of 7,500+ employees. Bob’s career features a specialization in identifying and fixing management and operational problems for multiple companies including leading over a dozen acquisitions, private placements and a public offering. He is uniquely positioned to provide ACI with highly relevant C-Level management perspective. Bob provides operational & macro perspective on investments ACI undertakes for client portfolios. Bob holds degrees from University of Illinois and University of Washington.

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    Disclosures Regarding Investment Performance Reporting in compliance with Rule 206(4)-1(a)(5).

    Visit http://www.dakhartsock.com/process-portfolios-historical-performance/ for historical performance of ACI’s Process Portfolios.

    Market Income Portfolio
    1. The performance of the broad market over the same time periods is included for both model and live portfolio to help investors understand market conditions present during the period examined by the model and during live investment.
    2. Listed Index models and graphs do NOT include transaction, fund or Advisor Management fees as the index model is not available for investment. Live portfolio results include all fees, including Advisor Management fees.
    3. Model results do NOT reflect reinvestment of dividends or other earnings. Actual results reflect limited reinvestment of dividends and other earnings, but do not reflect the impact of any applicable taxes which vary by investor and account type (deferred account vs. taxable, etc.).
    4. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss and/or principle. While the Index model has historically shown reasonable performance versus the S&P 500 on a risk adjusted basis, there is no guarantee that will continue into the future. Market Income is designed to provide reasonable returns for less risk than the broad market on a risk adjusted basis, and while the firm believes model portfolios are capable of continued outperformance on this basis, there is no guarantee they will do so. Comparisons with the S&P 500 are included to help the average investor understand how an investment in Market Income may differ from investment in an index fund such as an S&P 500 index fund.
    5. The model for Market Income is the Chicago Board of Exchange S&P 500 Buy/Write Index or “BXM.” BXM has historically displayed less volatility than the S&P 500 and Market Income. BXM cannot be directly invested in. Market Income does not exactly follow the BXM index model – the mechanics of closing and opening positions differ – BXM opens, closes or rolls positions on the same day every month regardless of the profit or loss in a position – Market Income generally, but not always, waits until after expiration before transacting. Market Income will also close or roll ahead of expiration if the position has a high percentage of profit present in order to capture that gain. Options are generally sold again within a week of the closure of the prior position, but not always, and often new position may be opened the same day the prior position is closed.
    Benchmark and index comparisons are made on a best available basis – meaning that both the index model and live performance are believed to be compared with market and the closest possible benchmark for simplicity of comparison. However, there is no guarantee future volatility will be either less than, equal to, or greater than the volatility experienced in the model or the S&P 500 although the firm invests with an eye on reduced volatility vs. the S&P 500.
    6. The model portfolio (BXM) utilizes the S&P 500 as its basis. Market Income differs from BXM in that the underlying securities are primarily selected on the basis of “relative” value. This simply means that sectors are compared with one another and Market Income generally invests in the sector or sector(s) trading at the greatest discount or the smallest premium relative to its historical average valuation. Other factors are also considered including sector earnings growth and expected return versus other available sector instruments. Advisor believes this gives Market Income a higher margin of safety than repeatedly investing in the S&P 500 on a rolling basis without regard to value or prevailing economic conditions, while preserving liquidity.
    7. The BXM model on which Market Income is based is a non-traded index. As such, results do not represent actual trading or investment and do not reflect any impact that material economic or market factors may have had on the advisors decision making if advisor had been managing live money during the period the model covers, including transaction, fund, or management fees.
    8. Market Income also differs from the BXM model in that Market Income seeks to reduce investment during recessionary economic periods while BXM stays invested regardless of economic or market conditions. Advisor believes this will better protect capital vs. BXM model but is materially different than staying invested in all market conditions. This action may cause Market Income to have reduced participation in markets that continue to move up despite Advisors reduction in investment.
    9. Advisor clients have experienced results that exceed the performance of the model to date. There is no guarantee Market Income will continue to outperform BXM in the future regardless of Advisor efforts to do so.

    Core Equity Portfolio
    1. The performance of the broad market over the same time periods is included for both model and live portfolio to help investors understand market conditions present during the period examined by the model and during live investment.
    2. Model is a historical back test and includes brokerage and fund fees but does NOT include Advisor Management fees which vary by account size, but in general reduce annual performance by approximately 1.5%. Live portfolio results include all fees, including Advisor Management fees.
    Historical back-test means the model portfolio has been tracked on a backwards looking basis prior to the beginning of live investments in order to establish historical risks and results for investment in this portfolio. Back testing has certain inherent limitations as detailed in item #7 below.
    3. Model results reflect regular investment of dividends or other earnings. Actual results reflect limited reinvestment of dividends and other earnings.
    4. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss and/or principle. While the back tested Core Equity model has historically shown desirable performance versus the S&P 500 on a risk adjusted basis, there is no guarantee that will continue into the future. Core Equity is designed to provide reasonable returns for the same or less risk than the broad market on a risk adjusted basis, and while the firm believes model portfolios are capable of continued outperformance on this basis, there is no guarantee they will do so. Comparisons with the S&P 500 are included to help the average investor understand how an investment in Core Equity may differ from investment in an index fund such as an S&P 500 index fund.
    5. The model for Core Equity is built of highly diversified, highly liquid sector and index securities, most frequently low cost ETFs. Core Equity live portfolios do not exactly follow the Core Equity model – variances in investor contributions, withdrawals, and risk tolerances result in measurable drift from the model. Over time, client accounts come closer in line with the Core Equity model.
    Core Equity live portfolios may differ from the Core Equity model in an additional material way; when valuations on certain sectors become overly stretched versus their historical average valuations, the Advisor may reduce exposure to those sectors in favor of a sector position which is priced in a more reasonable range in comparison to it’s typical historical valuation. Periodically, Core Equity may allocate a small but measurable percent of assets (up to 5%) in volatility linked instruments in an effort to better manage the portfolio.
    These factors may result in greater or less than model performance over time.
    Benchmark and index comparisons are made on a best available basis – meaning that both the index model and live performance are compared with market and other benchmarks the
    Advisors believe to be suitable for simplicity of comparison. However, there is no guarantee future volatility or performance will be either less than, equal to, or greater than the volatility or performance experienced in the model or the S&P 500 although the firm invests with an eye on reduced volatility vs. the S&P 500.
    6. Core Equity invests in diversified components of the financial markets and broad economy by targeting sectors or indices which demonstrate potential for a consistent range of multi-year returns, while seeking a risk adjusted investment profile equal to or lower than the broad markets. These sectors contain a range of equity stocks with an equally broad range of characteristics – some sectors are present in the Core Equity portfolio due to their historically defensive nature, some are present due to their historical growth characteristics, some are a blend of the spectrum between. The intent is to provide a balanced equity portfolio suitable for most investors as an S&P 500 index fund replacement but which seeks lower risk while experiencing, on average, a greater return than an S&P 500 index investment.
    7. The Core Equity model results do not represent actual trading or investment and do not reflect any impact that material economic or market factors may have had on the advisors decision making if advisor had been managing live money during the period the model covers, including transaction, fund, or management fees as detailed above in item #2.
    8. Core Equity live portfolios also differ from the Core Equity model in that Core Equity seeks to reduce investment during recessionary economic periods while the Core Equity historical model stays invested regardless of economic or market conditions. Advisor believes this will better protect capital vs. model but is materially different than staying invested in all market conditions. This action may cause Core Equity live portfolios to have reduced participation in markets that continue to move up despite Advisors reduction in investment.
    9. Advisor clients have experienced results that slightly lag the performance of the model to date. This lag is due to a number of factors, primarily the fact that different clients allocate different dollar amounts to Core Equity at different times. In general, the longer a client has been fully allocated to the Core Equity portfolio, the closer it is to model performance.
    The benchmark for Core Equity (The S&P 500) has historically displayed greater volatility (risk) than the Core Equity model or live Core Equity portfolios. This may or may not be the case in the future.

    Market Momentum Portfolio
    1. The performance of the broad market over the same time periods is included to help investors understand market conditions present during the period covered by live investment.
    2. Listed comparison Index graphs and statistics do NOT include transaction, fund or Advisor Management fees. Live portfolio results include all fees, including Advisor Management fees.
    3. Actual results reflect limited reinvestment of dividends and other earnings, but do not reflect the impact of any applicable taxes which vary by investor and account type (deferred account vs. taxable, etc.).
    4. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss and/or principle. While the closest benchmark for Market Momentum has historically shown reasonable performance versus the S&P 500 on a risk adjusted basis, there is no guarantee that Market Momentum that will continue such performance into the future. Market Momentum is designed to provide reasonable returns for less risk than the broad market on a risk adjusted basis, and while the firm believes the portfolio is capable of outperformance on this basis, there is no guarantee it will do so. Comparisons with the S&P 500 are included to help the average investor understand how an investment in Market Momentum may differ from investment in an index fund such as an S&P 500 index fund.
    5. The closest benchmark for Market Momentum is the Chicago Board of Exchange S&P 500 Buy/Write Index or “BXM.” BXM has historically displayed less volatility than the S&P 500 and Market Income. BXM cannot be directly invested in. Market Momentum differs in key ways from BXM – the mechanics of closing and opening positions differ – BXM opens, closes or rolls positions on the same day every month regardless of the profit or loss in a position – Market Momentum targets closing or rolling positions based on technical factors including trend support and resistance. Market Momemtum will also close or roll ahead of expiration if the position has a high percentage of profit present in order to capture that gain. Options are generally not sold again until the underlying investment has moved into an area of resistance but not always; new position may be opened the same day the prior position is closed.
    Benchmark comparisons are made on a best available basis – meaning that live performance is believed to be compared with the closest possible benchmark for simplicity of comparison. However, there is no guarantee future volatility will be either less than, equal to, or greater than the volatility experienced in the model or the S&P 500 although the firm invests with an eye on reduced volatility vs. the S&P 500. Market Momentum , like BXM, is an options writing strategy seeking to reduce investment volatility and improve risk adjusted returns for investors.
    6. The model portfolio (BXM) utilizes the S&P 500 as its basis. Market Momentum differs from BXM in that the underlying securities are primarily selected on the basis of “relative” value. This simply means that sectors are compared with one another and Market Momentum generally invests in the sector or sector(s) trading at the greatest discount or the smallest premium relative to its historical average valuation. Other factors are also considered including sector earnings growth and expected return versus other available sector instruments. Advisor believes this gives Market Momentum a higher margin of safety than repeatedly investing in the S&P 500 on a rolling basis without regard to value or prevailing economic conditions, while preserving liquidity.
    7. The BXM model on which Market Momentum is compared is a non-traded index. As such, results do not represent actual trading or investment and do not reflect any impact that material economic or market factors may have had on the advisors decision making if advisor had been managing live money during the period the model covers, including transaction, fund, or management fees.
    8. Market Momentum also differs from the BXM model in that Market Momentum seeks to reduce investment during corrective or recessionary economic periods while BXM stays invested regardless of economic or market conditions. Advisor believes this will better protect capital in comparison to BXM but such action is materially different than staying invested in all market conditions. This action may cause Market Momentum to have reduced participation in markets that continue to move up despite Advisors reduction in investment.
    9. Advisor clients have experienced results that exceed the performance of the benchmark to date. There is no guarantee Market Momentum will continue to outperform BXM in the future regardless of Advisor efforts to do so.

    Durable Opportunities Portfolio
    1. The performance of the broad market in the form of the Dow Jones Industrial Index over the same time periods is included for live portfolio comparison to help investors understand market conditions present during the period covered by live investment.
    2. The Index results do not include brokerage, transaction, or Advisor fees. Live portfolio results include all fees, including Advisor Management fees.
    3. Actual results reflect limited reinvestment of dividends and other earnings.
    4. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss and/or principle. Portfolios compromised of companies matching the profile of those selected for including in Durable Opportunities have historically displayed superior risk adjusted performance to the Index, but there is no guarantee that will continue into the future. Durable Opportunities is designed to provide investment in companies that firm believes meet a stringent set of criteria firm believes reduces the likelihood of permanent capital impairment while allowing investors to participate in investment in companies firm believes will stand the test of time and provide superior long term returns. While the firm believes the portfolio is capable of outperformance on this basis, there is no guarantee it will do so. Comparisons with the Dow Jones are included to help the average investor understand how an investment in Durable Opportunities may differ from investment in a concentrated index fund such as a Dow Jones Industrials index fund. Durable Opportunities is not restricted to investment in industrial companies or in companies with a specific level of capitalization, unlike the Dow Jones.
    5. Durable Opportunities is primarily a value driven strategy; when valuations in holdings become overly stretched versus their historical average valuations, the Advisor may reduce exposure to those holdings by either liquidation or hedging, and may re-allocate funds into a holding which is priced in a more reasonable range in comparison to it’s typical historical valuation. Periodically, Durable Opportunities may allocate a small but measurable percent of assets (up to 5%) in volatility linked instruments in an effort to better manage the portfolio.
    Benchmark comparisons are made on a best available basis – meaning that live performance is compared with the benchmarks the firm believe to be suitable for simplicity of comparison. However, there is no guarantee future volatility or performance will be either less than, equal to, or greater than the volatility or performance experienced in the Dow Jones Industrials although the firm invests with an eye on reduced volatility vs. the Dow Jones Industrials Index. 6. Durable Opportunties invests in companies firm believes to possess a Durable Competitive Advantage. Such companies are likely to be around for decades, easing the concern of principal return. DCA companies often suffer less in bear markets and usually lead recoveries. These companies allow ACI to build portfolios with minimum expected returns that may be in the mid-single digit range over any 3-5 year period which may provide long term stability partnered with long term growth in equity. There are no guarantees the strategy will be successful in this endeavor.
    6. The Durable Opportunities portfolios also differ from the benchmark comparison in that Durable Opportunities reduce investment by hedging or raising cash during recessionary economic periods while Dow Jones Industrial Index reflects 100% investment at all times regardless of economic or market conditions. Firm believes this will better protect capital vs. model but is materially different than staying invested in all market conditions. This action may cause the Durable Opportunities portfolio to experience reduced participation in markets that continue to move up despite Advisors reduction in investment.
    7. Advisor clients have experienced results that have lagged the performance of the benchmark to date. This lag is due to a number of factors, primarily the fact that the current high valuation investing environment has made it difficult to identify companies that fit the parameters of Durable Opportunities at a desirable valuation level. Different clients allocate different dollar amounts to Durable Opportunities at different times, which has also impacted the performance of the overall portfolio.

    Full Cycle Portfolio
    1. The performance of the broad market over the same time periods is included for both model and live portfolio to help investors understand market conditions present during the period examined by the model and during live investment.
    2. Model is a historical back test and includes brokerage and fund fees but does NOT include Advisor Management fees which vary by account size, but in general reduce annual performance by approximately 1.5%. Live portfolio results include all fees, including Advisor Management fees.
    Historical back-test means the model portfolio has been tracked on a backwards looking basis prior to the beginning of live investments in order to establish historical risks and results for investment in this portfolio. Back testing has certain inherent limitations as detailed in item #7 below.
    3. Model results reflect regular investment of dividends or other earnings. Actual results reflect limited reinvestment of dividends and other earnings.
    4. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss and/or principle. While the back tested Full Cycle Portfolio model has historically shown desirable performance versus the S&P 500 on a risk adjusted basis, there is no guarantee that will continue into the future. Full Cycle Portfolio is designed to provide reasonable returns for the same or less risk than the broad market on a risk adjusted basis in all phases of the economic cycle by holding risk weighted non-correlated assets, and while the firm believes model portfolios are capable of continued outperformance on this basis, there is no guarantee they will do so in the future. Comparisons with the S&P 500 are included to help the average investor understand how an investment in the Full Cycle Portfolio may differ from investment in an index fund such as an S&P 500 index fund.
    5. The model for the Full Cycle Portfolio is built of diversified, liquid sector and index securities, most frequently low cost ETFs and low cost funds. The live Full Cycle portfolio does not follow the Full Cycle model exactly – variances in investor contributions & withdrawals result in measurable drift from the model. Over time, client accounts come closer in line with the Full Cycle model.
    Full Cycle live portfolios may differ from the Full Cycle model in an additional material way; when valuations on certain sectors become overly stretched versus their historical average valuations, the Advisor may reduce exposure to those sectors in favor of a comparable position which is priced in a more reasonable range in comparison to it’s typical historical valuation.
    These factors may result in greater or less than model performance over time.
    Benchmark and index comparisons are made on a best available basis – meaning that both the index model and live performance are compared with market and other benchmarks the
    firm believes to be suitable for simplicity of comparison. However, there is no guarantee future volatility or performance will be either less than, equal to, or greater than the volatility or performance experienced in the model or the S&P 500 although the firm invests with an eye on reduced volatility vs. the S&P 500.
    6. Full Cycle invests in diversified components of the global financial markets and broad economy by balancing risks with non-correlating or reduced correlation assets in opposition to one another each of which is designed to prosper in some phase of the economic cycle and intended to offset reduced or poor performance in other portfolio holdings.
    7. The Full Cycle model results do not represent actual trading or investment and do not reflect any impact that material economic or market factors may have had on the advisors decision making if advisor had been managing live money during the period the model covers, including transaction, fund, or management fees as detailed above in item #2.
    8. Full Cycle live portfolios also differ from the Full Cycle model in that the live portfolio may be rebalanced more or less frequently depending on prevailing market conditions. While firm believes this difference positions portfolio for improved risk adjusted performance, it is not clear that this difference results in clear over or under performance versus the Full Cycle model.
    9. Advisor clients have experienced results that slightly outperform the performance of the model to date. This outperformance may or may not persist. In general, the longer a client has been fully allocated to the Full Cycle portfolio, the closer it is to model performance.

    Fixed Income Portfolio
    1. The performance of the broad bond markets over the same time periods is included to help investors understand market conditions present during the period covered by live investment.
    2. Listed comparison Index graphs and statistics do NOT include transaction, fund or Advisor Management fees. Live portfolio results include all fees, including Advisor Management fees.
    3. Actual results reflect limited reinvestment of dividends and other earnings, but do not reflect the impact of any applicable taxes which vary by investor and account type (deferred account vs. taxable, etc.).
    4. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss and/or principle. While the closest benchmark for Fixed Income has historically shown reduced volatility and reasonable performance versus many classes of fixed income investments, there is no guarantee that Fixed Income that will continue such performance into the future. Market Momentum is designed to provide reasonable returns for less risk than the broad market on a risk adjusted basis, and while the firm believes the portfolio is capable of outperformance on this basis, there is no guarantee it will do so. Comparisons with US Aggregate Bond Market and PIMCO Total Return are included to help the average investor understand how an investment in Fixed Income may differ from investment in an alternative index or fixed income fund.
    5. The closest benchmark for Fixed Income is the Pimco Total Return Fund. Fixed Income differs in key ways from BOND – including selection of underlying investments and reduced diversification. Benchmark comparisons are made on a best available basis – meaning that live performance is believed to be compared with the closest possible benchmark for simplicity of comparison. However, there is no guarantee future volatility and performance will be either less than, equal to, or greater than the volatility and performance experienced by the benchmark although the firm invests with an eye on out performance.
    6. The benchmark may include securities not contained in Fixed Income, and vice versa. Fixed Income currently holds significantly more cash than PIMCO Total Return Fund, a situation likely to continue in the near future. This action may cause Fixed Income to have reduced participation in markets that move up despite Advisors reduction in investment.
    7. Advisor clients have experienced results that lag the performance of the benchmarks to date. There is no guarantee Fixed Income will continue to outperform benchmarks in the future regardless of Advisor efforts to do so.

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