
—Updated September 5, 2018
The Recession Probability Indicator (“RPI”) is a tool for measuring the strength of the American economy. When the RPI signals the likelihood the US has moved into recession, the investment environment for stocks usually becomes unfavorable, which basically means stocks go down more than up. Sometimes way down.

ACI uses the Recession Probability Indicator to help preserve assets during times of highest risk, and to help us determine when smart investment is most likely to be rewarded.
The RPI is derived from data provided by the Federal Reserve, things like real manufacturing and trade sales, GDP, employment and more. The RPI has demonstrated itself to be effective at sounding the alarm on failing investment conditions, and equally effective at spotting the turning point when economic conditions began to favor investment again.
Using the illustration below, the RPI has been good for +3.8% per year over the S&P 500 per year compounded since January 2000, or a return-on-investment 198.9% higher than just buying the S&P 500 since January 2000. Scroll down to view the full history.
The May 2018 reading for the RPI (the most current) is 12 which suggests the economy is currently not in recession and the economic environment for investing is currently STABLE. There is generally about a 2 month lag in the reading. Update coming soon.
To illustrate the potential of the concept compare a $100,000 investment in the S&P 500 guided by the RPI beginning January 2000 versus a $100,000 investment in the S&P 500 simply doing what most brokers and financial salespeople (they prefer “financial advisor”) tell you – “just hold on” over the same period.
For this illustration, the RPI moves to 100% cash in the 2nd month following a move to 20 or above, and invests 100% in the 2nd month following the move below 20. This is a simplified example and should not be used to make buy or sell decisions in your portfolio. It’s an illustration of a proprietary tool developed to improve the service provided for my firm’s clients, and hopefully it gets you thinking about some of the things the most successful investors do that’s different.
S&P 500 Buy & Hold vs. RPI Guided: Difference vs. S&P Buy & Hold. Data table below illustration.

The first table below summarizes the history of this illustration, the second contains the actual monthly comparisons. CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate, so a +1% CAGR means that the RPI would have returned a 1% higher CAGR than the S&P for each year of the specified period.
Table 1 – Historical Summary Results – January 2000 Beginning Value $100,000
Date | S&P 500 Buy & Hold | RPI Guided | USD$ RPI difference vs. S&P for Period | Annual RPI CAGR Difference for Period |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jan 2000 – Aug 2000 high | $108,836 | $108,836 | $0 | +0% |
Jan 2000 – Sept 02 low | $58,466 | $97,960 | $39,494 | +16.9% |
Jan 2000 – May 2007 high | $109,764 | $169,278 | $59,514 | +7.1% |
Jan 2000 – Feb 2009 low | $52,715 | $147,160 | $94,445 | +11.2% |
Jan 2000 – August 2018 | $208,068 | $407,315 | $199,247 | +3.8% |
Cumulative ROI | 108.1% | 307.3% | 198.90% |
Table 2 – Historical Monthly Data Comparison – January 2000 Beginning Value $100,000
**1-2 Month Lag in Indicator reading due to Fed data release schedule.
Date | S&P 500 Price | RPI Reading | Opinion | S&P 500 Buy & Hold | RPI Guided | RPI Difference vs. S&P 500 Buy/Hold |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug-18 | $2,901 | $208,068 | $407,315 | +$199,247 | ||
Jul-18 | $2,816 | $201,956 | $395,351 | $193,395 | ||
Jun-18 | $2,718 | 12 | Stable | $194,934 | $381,605 | $186,670 |
May-18 | $2,705 | 12 | Stable | $193,994 | $379,766 | $185,771 |
Apr-18 | $2,648 | 12 | Stable | $189,892 | $371,733 | $181,842 |
Mar-18 | $2,641 | 17 | Stable | $189,377 | $370,725 | $181,349 |
Feb-18 | $2,714 | 17 | Stable | $194,609 | $380,967 | $186,359 |
Jan-18 | $2,824 | 17 | Stable | $202,495 | $396,406 | $193,911 |
Dec-17 | $2,674 | 12 | Stable | $191,725 | $375,321 | $183,597 |
Nov-17 | $2,648 | 12 | Stable | $189,858 | $371,667 | $181,809 |
Oct-17 | $2,575 | 12 | Stable | $184,672 | $361,515 | $176,843 |
Sep-17 | $2,519 | 12 | Stable | $180,663 | $353,668 | $173,004 |
Aug-17 | $2,472 | 12 | Stable | $177,242 | $346,970 | $169,728 |
Jul-17 | $2,470 | 12 | Stable | $177,145 | $346,781 | $169,636 |
Jun-17 | $2,423 | 12 | Stable | $173,782 | $340,198 | $166,416 |
May-17 | $2,412 | 12 | Stable | $172,950 | $338,568 | $165,618 |
Apr-17 | $2,384 | 12 | Stable | $170,971 | $334,694 | $163,723 |
Mar-17 | $2,363 | 12 | Stable | $169,431 | $331,679 | $162,248 |
Feb-17 | $2,364 | 17 | Stable | $169,497 | $331,808 | $162,311 |
Jan-17 | $2,279 | 17 | Stable | $163,418 | $319,908 | $156,490 |
Dec-16 | $2,239 | 12 | Stable | $160,547 | $314,287 | $153,740 |
Nov-16 | $2,199 | 12 | Stable | $157,677 | $308,669 | $150,992 |
Oct-16 | $2,126 | 12 | Stable | $152,466 | $298,469 | $146,003 |
Sep-16 | $2,168 | 12 | Stable | $155,487 | $304,382 | $148,895 |
Aug-16 | $2,171 | 12 | Stable | $155,679 | $305,758 | $149,079 |
Jul-16 | $2,174 | 12 | Stable | $155,869 | $305,130 | $149,261 |
Jun-16 | $2,099 | 12 | Stable | $150,509 | $294,638 | $144,129 |
May-16 | $2,097 | 12 | Stable | $150,373 | $294,371 | $143,998 |
Apr-16 | $2,065 | 12 | Stable | $148,103 | $289,927 | $141,824 |
Mar-16 | $2,060 | 17 | Stable | $147,704 | $289,146 | $141,442 |
Feb-16 | $1,932 | 17 | Stable | $138,560 | $271,246 | $132,686 |
Jan-16 | $1,940 | 12 | Stable | $139,135 | $272,371 | $133,236 |
15-Dec | $2,043 | 12 | Stable | $146,571 | $286,928 | $140,357 |
Nov-15 | $2,080 | 12 | Stable | $149,186 | $292,048 | $142,862 |
Oct-15 | $2,079 | 12 | Stable | $149,111 | $291,901 | $142,790 |
Sep-15 | $1,920 | 12 | Stable | $137,690 | $269,533 | $131,843 |
Aug-15 | $1,972 | 12 | Stable | $141,430 | $276,855 | $135,425 |
Jul-15 | $2,104 | 12 | Stable | $150,871 | $295,337 | $144,466 |
Jun-15 | $2,063 | 17 | Stable | $147,950 | $289,619 | $141,669 |
May 15: **Reinvest | $2,107 | 12 | Stable | $151,126 | $295,780 | $144,654 |
15-Apr | $2,085 | 12 | Stable | $149,557 | $292,977 | $143,420 |
March 15: **Exit | $2,068 | 17 | Stable | $148,293 | $292,977 | $144,684 |
15-Feb | $2,104 | 27 | Reduce Risk | $150,919 | $292,977 | $142,058 |
15-Jan | $1,995 | 17 | Stable | $143,065 | $277,731 | $134,666 |
14-Dec | $2,059 | 17 | Stable | $147,649 | $286,629 | $138,980 |
14-Nov | $2,068 | 12 | Stable | $148,270 | $287,834 | $139,565 |
14-Oct | $2,018 | 12 | Stable | $144,719 | $280,942 | $136,223 |
14-Sep | $1,972 | 3 | Stable | $141,438 | $274,571 | $133,134 |
14-Aug | $2,003 | 3 | Stable | $143,666 | $278,898 | $135,232 |
14-Jul | $1,931 | 3 | Stable | $138,453 | $268,777 | $130,324 |
14-Jun | $1,960 | 3 | Stable | $140,573 | $272,892 | $132,320 |
14-May | $1,924 | 3 | Stable | $137,944 | $267,789 | $129,845 |
14-Apr | $1,884 | 12 | Stable | $135,102 | $262,273 | $127,171 |
14-Mar | $1,872 | 12 | Stable | $134,270 | $260,657 | $126,387 |
14-Feb | $1,859 | 12 | Stable | $133,346 | $258,862 | $125,517 |
14-Jan | $1,783 | 3 | Stable | $127,834 | $248,162 | $120,329 |
13-Dec | $1,848 | 3 | Stable | $132,550 | $257,318 | $124,768 |
13-Nov | $1,806 | 12 | Stable | $129,499 | $251,395 | $121,896 |
13-Oct | $1,757 | 12 | Stable | $125,966 | $244,536 | $118,570 |
13-Sep | $1,682 | 12 | Stable | $120,588 | $234,096 | $113,508 |
13-Aug | $1,633 | 3 | Stable | $117,104 | $227,333 | $110,229 |
13-Jul | $1,686 | 3 | Stable | $120,888 | $234,678 | $113,790 |
13-Jun | $1,606 | 12 | Stable | $115,190 | $223,617 | $108,427 |
13-May | $1,631 | 12 | Stable | $116,944 | $227,023 | $110,078 |
13-Apr | $1,598 | 12 | Stable | $114,565 | $222,405 | $107,839 |
13-Mar | $1,569 | 3 | Stable | $112,530 | $218,454 | $105,924 |
13-Feb | $1,515 | 3 | Stable | $108,621 | $210,865 | $102,244 |
13-Jan | $1,498 | 12 | Stable | $107,433 | $208,559 | $101,126 |
12-Dec | $1,426 | 12 | Stable | $102,275 | $198,546 | $96,271 |
12-Nov | $1,416 | 12 | Stable | $101,558 | $197,153 | $95,595 |
12-Oct | $1,412 | 3 | Stable | $101,269 | $196,593 | $95,324 |
12-Sep | $1,441 | 12 | Stable | $103,314 | $200,562 | $97,248 |
12-Aug | $1,407 | 12 | Stable | $100,869 | $195,816 | $94,947 |
12-Jul | $1,379 | 12 | Stable | $98,914 | $192,021 | $93,107 |
12-Jun | $1,362 | 12 | Stable | $97,684 | $189,632 | $91,949 |
12-May | $1,310 | 12 | Stable | $93,967 | $182,417 | $88,450 |
12-Apr | $1,398 | 3 | Stable | $100,247 | $194,609 | $94,362 |
12-Mar | $1,408 | 12 | Stable | $101,005 | $196,079 | $95,075 |
12-Feb | $1,366 | 12 | Stable | $97,936 | $190,122 | $92,186 |
12-Jan | $1,312 | 12 | Stable | $94,116 | $182,706 | $88,590 |
11-Dec | $1,258 | 3 | Stable | $90,185 | $175,076 | $84,891 |
11-Nov | $1,247 | 12 | Stable | $89,422 | $173,595 | $84,172 |
11-Oct | $1,253 | 12 | Stable | $89,877 | $174,477 | $84,600 |
11-Sep | $1,131 | 12 | Stable | $81,137 | $157,510 | $76,373 |
11-Aug | $1,219 | 12 | Stable | $87,409 | $169,687 | $82,278 |
11-Jul | $1,292 | 12 | Stable | $92,672 | $179,904 | $87,232 |
11-Jun | $1,321 | 12 | Stable | $94,706 | $183,852 | $89,146 |
11-May | $1,345 | 3 | Stable | $96,467 | $187,271 | $90,804 |
11-Apr | $1,364 | 3 | Stable | $97,788 | $189,834 | $92,047 |
11-Mar | $1,326 | 3 | Stable | $95,078 | $184,575 | $89,496 |
11-Feb | $1,327 | 3 | Stable | $95,178 | $184,768 | $89,590 |
11-Jan | $1,286 | 3 | Stable | $92,231 | $179,047 | $86,816 |
10-Dec | $1,258 | 3 | Stable | $90,188 | $175,082 | $84,893 |
10-Nov | $1,181 | 3 | Stable | $84,660 | $164,350 | $79,690 |
October-10 : Reinvest | $1,183 | 3 | Stable | $84,854 | $158,872 | $79,873 |
September-10: Exit | $1,141 | 12 | Stable | $81,838 | $158,872 | $77,033 |
10-Aug | $1,049 | 17 | Stable | $75,250 | $146,082 | $70,832 |
10-Jul | $1,102 | 27 | Reduce Risk | $78,998 | $153,359 | $74,360 |
10-Jun | $1,031 | 12 | Stable | $73,915 | $143,490 | $69,575 |
10-May | $1,089 | 3 | Stable | $78,124 | $151,662 | $73,537 |
10-Apr | $1,187 | 3 | Stable | $85,100 | $165,204 | $80,104 |
10-Mar | $1,169 | 3 | Stable | $83,863 | $162,802 | $78,939 |
10-Feb | $1,104 | 3 | Stable | $79,206 | $153,761 | $74,555 |
10-Jan | $1,074 | 3 | Stable | $77,010 | $149,498 | $72,489 |
9-Dec | $1,115 | 12 | Stable | $79,966 | $155,238 | $75,272 |
9-Nov | $1,096 | 12 | Stable | $78,570 | $152,528 | $73,957 |
October 09: **Reinvest | $1,036 | 12 | Stable | $74,308 | $144,253 | $69,945 |
9-Sep | $1,057 | 3 | Stable | $75,806 | $147,161 | $71,355 |
9-Aug | $1,021 | 15 | Stable | $73,191 | $147,161 | $73,970 |
9-Jul | $987 | 30 | Protect | $70,815 | $147,161 | $76,346 |
9-Jun | $919 | 70 | Protect | $65,927 | $147,161 | $81,234 |
9-May | $919 | 70 | Protect | $65,914 | $147,161 | $81,247 |
9-Apr | $873 | 70 | Protect | $62,591 | $147,161 | $84,570 |
9-Mar | $798 | 75 | Protect | $57,217 | $147,161 | $89,944 |
February-09 – Closing Low Great Recession | $735 | 75 | Protect | $52,715 | $147,161 | $94,446 |
9-Jan | $826 | 75 | Protect | $59,226 | $147,161 | $87,935 |
8-Dec | $903 | 75 | Protect | $64,774 | $147,161 | $82,387 |
8-Nov | $896 | 75 | Protect | $64,271 | $147,161 | $82,889 |
8-Oct | $969 | 75 | Protect | $69,471 | $147,161 | $77,689 |
8-Sep | $1,166 | 75 | Protect | $83,642 | $147,161 | $63,518 |
8-Aug | $1,283 | 75 | Protect | $91,995 | $147,161 | $55,166 |
8-Jul | $1,267 | 70 | Protect | $90,887 | $147,161 | $56,274 |
8-Jun | $1,280 | 70 | Protect | $91,792 | $147,161 | $55,369 |
8-May | $1,400 | 70 | Protect | $100,425 | $147,161 | $46,736 |
8-Apr | $1,386 | 75 | Protect | $99,364 | $147,161 | $47,797 |
March-08: **Exit | $1,323 | 51 | Protect | $94,854 | $147,161 | $52,307 |
8-Feb | $1,331 | 26 | Reduce Risk | $95,423 | $147,161 | $51,738 |
8-Jan | $1,379 | 26 | Reduce Risk | $98,859 | $152,461 | $53,601 |
7-Dec | $1,468 | 12 | Stable | $105,300 | $162,393 | $57,094 |
7-Nov | $1,481 | 12 | Stable | $106,216 | $163,806 | $57,590 |
7-Oct | $1,549 | 3 | Stable | $111,110 | $171,353 | $60,244 |
7-Sep | $1,527 | 12 | Stable | $109,487 | $168,851 | $59,364 |
7-Aug | $1,474 | 12 | Stable | $105,703 | $163,016 | $57,312 |
7-Jul | $1,455 | 17 | Stable | $104,361 | $160,945 | $56,585 |
7-Jun | $1,503 | 12 | Stable | $107,809 | $166,263 | $58,454 |
May -07: Pre-Crash High | $1,531 | 17 | Stable | $109,764 | $169,279 | $59,514 |
7-Apr | $1,482 | 17 | Stable | $106,304 | $163,942 | $57,638 |
7-Mar | $1,421 | 17 | Stable | $101,893 | $157,140 | $55,247 |
7-Feb | $1,407 | 12 | Stable | $100,886 | $155,587 | $54,701 |
7-Jan | $1,438 | 3 | Stable | $103,140 | $159,062 | $55,922 |
6-Dec | $1,418 | 3 | Stable | $101,710 | $156,857 | $55,147 |
6-Nov | $1,401 | 12 | Stable | $100,442 | $154,902 | $54,460 |
6-Oct | $1,378 | 12 | Stable | $98,815 | $152,393 | $53,578 |
6-Sep | $1,336 | 12 | Stable | $95,797 | $147,738 | $51,941 |
6-Aug | $1,304 | 12 | Stable | $93,500 | $144,196 | $50,696 |
6-Jul | $1,277 | 12 | Stable | $91,552 | $141,192 | $49,640 |
6-Jun | $1,270 | 12 | Stable | $91,089 | $140,478 | $49,389 |
6-May | $1,270 | 12 | Stable | $91,081 | $140,465 | $49,384 |
6-Apr | $1,311 | 12 | Stable | $93,987 | $144,947 | $50,960 |
6-Mar | $1,295 | 12 | Stable | $92,855 | $143,202 | $50,346 |
6-Feb | $1,281 | 3 | Stable | $91,839 | $141,634 | $49,795 |
6-Jan | $1,280 | 3 | Stable | $91,798 | $141,570 | $49,773 |
5-Dec | $1,248 | 12 | Stable | $89,518 | $138,054 | $48,537 |
5-Nov | $1,249 | 17 | Stable | $89,603 | $138,186 | $48,583 |
5-Oct | $1,207 | 17 | Stable | $86,558 | $133,489 | $46,932 |
5-Sep | $1,229 | 12 | Stable | $88,121 | $135,900 | $47,779 |
5-Aug | $1,220 | 12 | Stable | $87,513 | $134,962 | $47,449 |
5-Jul | $1,234 | 12 | Stable | $88,506 | $136,494 | $47,988 |
5-Jun | $1,191 | 17 | Stable | $85,433 | $131,755 | $46,322 |
5-May | $1,192 | 12 | Stable | $85,445 | $131,774 | $46,329 |
5-Apr | $1,157 | 17 | Stable | $82,960 | $127,942 | $44,981 |
5-Mar | $1,181 | 12 | Stable | $84,663 | $130,567 | $45,904 |
5-Feb | $1,204 | 17 | Stable | $86,313 | $133,112 | $46,799 |
5-Jan | $1,181 | 12 | Stable | $84,712 | $130,642 | $45,931 |
4-Dec | $1,212 | 12 | Stable | $86,910 | $134,032 | $47,122 |
4-Nov | $1,174 | 3 | Stable | $84,177 | $129,818 | $45,641 |
4-Oct | $1,130 | 3 | Stable | $81,049 | $124,994 | $43,945 |
4-Sep | $1,115 | 3 | Stable | $79,929 | $123,267 | $43,338 |
4-Aug | $1,104 | 12 | Stable | $79,188 | $122,123 | $42,936 |
4-Jul | $1,102 | 17 | Stable | $79,007 | $121,845 | $42,838 |
4-Jun | $1,141 | 12 | Stable | $81,812 | $126,171 | $44,359 |
4-May | $1,121 | 12 | Stable | $80,367 | $123,941 | $43,575 |
4-Apr | $1,107 | 3 | Stable | $79,407 | $122,462 | $43,055 |
4-Mar | $1,126 | 12 | Stable | $80,763 | $124,553 | $43,790 |
4-Feb | $1,145 | 12 | Stable | $82,106 | $126,624 | $44,518 |
4-Jan | $1,131 | 17 | Stable | $81,116 | $125,097 | $43,981 |
3-Dec | $1,112 | 17 | Stable | $79,738 | $122,973 | $43,234 |
3-Nov | $1,058 | 17 | Stable | $75,886 | $117,031 | $41,145 |
3-Oct | $1,051 | 12 | Stable | $75,349 | $116,203 | $40,854 |
3-Sep | $996 | 3 | Stable | $71,423 | $110,149 | $38,726 |
3-Aug | $1,008 | 3 | Stable | $72,287 | $111,481 | $39,194 |
3-Jul | $990 | 3 | Stable | $71,017 | $109,523 | $38,506 |
3-Jun | $975 | 3 | Stable | $69,884 | $107,775 | $37,891 |
3-May | $964 | 12 | Stable | $69,101 | $106,568 | $37,467 |
3-Apr | $917 | 12 | Stable | $65,754 | $101,407 | $35,652 |
3-Mar | $848 | 12 | Stable | $60,825 | $93,804 | $32,979 |
3-Feb | $841 | 3 | Stable | $60,321 | $93,027 | $32,706 |
3-Jan | $856 | 3 | Stable | $61,364 | $94,636 | $33,272 |
2-Dec | $880 | 12 | Stable | $63,094 | $97,304 | $34,210 |
November 02: **Reinvest | $936 | 12 | Stable | $67,145 | $103,551 | $36,406 |
2-Oct | $886 | 12 | Stable | $63,520 | $97,961 | $34,441 |
September 02: DotCom Low | $815 | 3 | Stable | $58,466 | $97,961 | $39,495 |
2-Aug | $916 | 22 | Protect | $65,694 | $97,961 | $32,267 |
2-Jul | $912 | 22 | Protect | $65,374 | $97,961 | $32,586 |
2-Jun | $990 | 22 | Protect | $70,982 | $97,961 | $26,979 |
2-May | $1,067 | 22 | Protect | $76,527 | $97,961 | $21,433 |
2-Apr | $1,077 | 22 | Protect | $77,228 | $97,961 | $20,732 |
2-Mar | $1,147 | 22 | Protect | $82,282 | $97,961 | $15,678 |
2-Feb | $1,107 | 27 | Protect | $79,366 | $97,961 | $18,594 |
2-Jan | $1,130 | 55 | Protect | $81,049 | $97,961 | $16,911 |
1-Dec | $1,148 | 46 | Protect | $82,332 | $97,961 | $15,629 |
1-Nov | $1,139 | 70 | Protect | $81,713 | $97,961 | $16,247 |
1-Oct | $1,060 | 70 | Protect | $75,999 | $97,961 | $21,961 |
1-Sep | $1,041 | 70 | Protect | $74,649 | $97,961 | $23,312 |
1-Aug | $1,134 | 75 | Protect | $81,292 | $97,961 | $16,668 |
1-Jul | $1,211 | 70 | Protect | $86,860 | $97,961 | $11,100 |
1-Jun | $1,224 | 70 | Protect | $87,806 | $97,961 | $10,154 |
1-May | $1,256 | 70 | Protect | $90,059 | $97,961 | $7,902 |
1-Apr | $1,249 | 70 | Protect | $89,602 | $97,961 | $8,358 |
1-Mar | $1,160 | 70 | Protect | $83,210 | $97,961 | $14,751 |
February 01: **Exit | $1,240 | 46 | Protect | $88,920 | $97,961 | $9,041 |
1-Jan | $1,366 | 75 | Reduce Risk | $97,961 | $97,961 | $0 |
Dec-00 | $1,320 | 50 | Reduce Risk | $94,680 | $94,680 | $0 |
Nov-00 | $1,315 | 12 | Stable | $94,298 | $94,298 | $0 |
Oct-00 | $1,429 | 12 | Stable | $102,506 | $102,506 | $0 |
Sep-00 | $1,437 | 12 | Stable | $103,016 | $103,016 | $0 |
August 00: Pre-DotCom Crash High | $1,518 | 12 | Stable | $108,836 | $108,836 | $0 |
Jul-00 | $1,431 | 12 | Stable | $102,608 | $102,608 | $0 |
Jun-00 | $1,455 | 12 | Stable | $104,313 | $104,313 | $0 |
May-00 | $1,421 | 12 | Stable | $101,875 | $101,875 | $0 |
Apr-00 | $1,452 | 12 | Stable | $104,157 | $104,157 | $0 |
Mar-00 | $1,499 | 12 | Stable | $107,467 | $107,467 | $0 |
Feb-00 | $1,366 | 12 | Stable | $97,989 | $97,989 | $0 |
Jan-00 | $1,394 | 12 | Stable | $100,000 | $100,000 | $0 |
Additional Details: Using a scoring algorithm, the RPI rates the investment environment from 3 to 75. A score of 20 or above signals a rising likelihood the US has moved into recession (bad for stocks). A move back below 20 signals a rising likelihood recession has ended (good for stocks). Most of the time it putters along between 3 and 17.
The RPI is derived from data provided by the Federal Reserve–things such as CPI, GDP, productivity, employment, income, manufacturing activity, etc.. It has demonstrated itself to be effective at sounding the alarm on failing investment conditions, and is about equally effective at spotting the the point when conditions begin to favor investment again.
The RPI has been accurate for the last 37 years, as long as the Fed datasets utilized have been available.
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Warm Regards,
Dak Hartsock