Market Outlook gives a quick summary about the market whenever I think it’s relevant. These updates may be monthly, quarterly, or semi-annual depending on market conditions. This update might talk about what the Fed is doing, or a look at what’s going on in the market from a fundamental or technical standpoint.
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Stock Market Outlook Q1 2016: Impending Bear Market Or Just A Correction?
I’ve front loaded this video with most of my observations in the first 4 minutes for busy subscribers/clients, but for those interested in more than a summary opinion I’ve included a deep dive into what I’m seeing in the market that drives my current view.
In slide 11, the red line somehow moved when I converted the presentation to video. It should be around the 23.5 mark rather than the 27 or so displayed. FYI.
Q3 Performance Update including Year-to-Date Results and 4th Quarter Outlook.
Out of respect for everyone’s time and interest, I’ve included a quick “executive” summary below and also front loaded the video with the key numbers. Those wanting a little more detail can…CLICK HERE to keep reading
ACI Process Portfolios: 1st Half 2016 Performance & 2nd Half Outlook
The video below has the most important information in the first minutes including performance details. The video player has controls to allow you to fast forward, pause or repeat whatever section of the video is most relevant to you.
CLICK HERE to keep reading
Q1 2016 Year-to-Date Results and Market Outlook Update
The included video reviews performance for all 6 Process Portfolios results year-to-date through April 15, 2016 and also features an updated Market Outlook.
We began 2016 with the worst January in at least a generation and a return to higher levels of volatility thanks to central bank statements and decisions that seem to be increasingly opaque to some market watchers. I’ve been fortunate in that the Fed hasn’t done anything far distant from my expectations, at least so far. CLICK HERE to keep reading
Stock Market Outlook: May 2015 — Where Does the Market Go from Here?
The introduction is a bit over a minute long and then I’ll walk you through some key aspects of the S&P 500 both in charts and from a fundamental standpoint to help build your understanding of where the market may be heading.
March 12, 2015 Update…
The Fed Quietly Keeps QE Going
Just like the balance sheet of any company, the balance sheet of Federal Reserve includes a large number of distinct assets and liabilities. The FED has been engaging in quantitative easing policies (called QE policies) to stimulate an economy that has continued to recover well below potential.
Since the Fed embarked on the first QE program about 5 years ago, the balance sheet of Federal Reserve has ballooned to over $4 trillion dollars. This expansion has been an item of broad concern. Perhaps as a result of such concerns, the Federal Reserve “officially” ended QE in October 2014.
Despite the official end, the Fed purchased an average of $93.4 billion per month in assets during December 2014 and January 2015, expanding the balance sheet by $186.7 billion according to CNBC.
Why is the Fed still spending?
It seems Chairman Yellen is seeing something she doesn’t like in the economy. It may be that she sees the quality of jobs being created is far below what’s occurred in previous recoveries. Economic engines are not built on bartenders and wait staff, and the last jobs report reported nearly a third of new jobs were this type of lower income service job.
A more important question may be when is the closet QE going to stop? It’s clear that Fed spending has benefited risk assets like equities. It’s arguable that as long as the Fed continues to support the economy through QE in combination with historically low rates, equities seem likely to prosper. If that’s true, then it’s equally likely that a real end to QE will bring an adjustment of some kind to risk assets. The severity of that adjustment is going to depend on a combination of earnings and valuations. If QE ends in the face of growing earnings and reasonable valuation, the adjustment may not be a white knuckle ride. Conversely, falling earnings and high valuations can be a risky proposition under the best of circumstances. At the moment, earnings growth seems to be falling and valuations are a bit stretched in many sectors. Will that be the case when the Fed really takes the economy off life support?
Time will tell.