Below are summaries of the free monthly features. Click on the title to view the pages for each feature.
You can subscribe to get automatic updates using the SIGN UP at the right, or if you only want one or two, use the contact to page to let me know and I’ll subscribe you to what you want to receive.
The Recession Probability Indicator (“RPI”) is a tool I developed for measuring the strength of the American economy. When the RPI signals increasing odds of recession, the investment environment for stocks usually becomes unfavorable, which basically means stocks go down more than up during such periods. Sometimes way down.
The RPI is derived from data provided by the Federal Reserve–things such as CPI, GDP, productivity, employment, income, manufacturing activity, etc.. It has demonstrated itself to be effective at sounding the alarm on failing investment conditions, and is about equally effective at spotting the the point when conditions begin to favor investment again.
Using a scoring algorithm, the RPI rates the investment environment from 3 to 75. A score of 20 or above signals a rising likelihood of recession (bad for stocks). A move back below 20 signals a rising likelihood of favorable investment conditions (good for stocks). Most of the time it putters along between 3 and 17.
There is a 2 – 3 month lag before the indicator is updated on this site.
The S&P Sector Value Update is always published around a month after it’s complete to protect the interest of my clients (and myself) and as such is not intended to be actionable trade intelligence for subscribers. It is intended to get you thinking about the things the biggest, most successful investors think about when you are considering making an investment. Valuation is important not because of it’s ability to predict crashes (not good at all) but because it helps tell you what you might expect in terms of a potential return by buying at a certain price. It’s a reasonable tool to tell you where the best opportunities may be when comparing them with one another. This update only looks at a handful of S&P sectors — the S&P 500 itself, technology, industrials, and so on. All together I track 19 sectors, but only publish a few here.
Market View gives a quick summary of what I’m thinking about the market whenever I think it’s relevant. These updates may be monthly, quarterly, or semi-annual depending on market conditions. This update might talk about what the Fed is doing, or a look at what’s going on in the market from a fundamental or technical standpoint, or even just a short article on some feature of investing I think may be helpful to anyone that reads it.
Independent 401k Reviews is just what it sounds like. I’ll crack the hood on specific 401k plans from big employers (send me an email if you’d like to see your 401k reviewed) to show you what choices are good for you and what choices not so good. I will not make specific recommendations, but I will show you how the funds available in your plan stack up to one another so you can make better choices. I’ll also show you the hidden fees in your plan that you probably don’t even know are there.
Now the mandatory disclaimers — Nothing I publish here is intended to be personalized investment advice or actionable market intelligence. The material on this site is intended to be educational and hopefully get you to think a bit more carefully about your investments and learn to avoid more of the big mistakes made by average investors, be it picking the wrong stock, the wrong fund, etc..
Enjoy, & think responsibly.